Weekly Financial Market Update
StrategicPoint of View®
January 23, 2012
Welcome to the StrategicPoint of View® -- a market and economic overview of what occurred last week, what's up for this week, and our commentary on the economy and current market activity in general for "Making Money" listeners.
LAST WEEK
In economic data, the volatile jobless claims number plummeted 50,000 to
352,000, the lowest level in four years. The producer and consumer
price indices responded to falling food and energy costs, and industrial
production gained a meaningful 0.4%. Housing starts pulled back to
657,000 but existing home sales rose 5% in December. Overseas, China’s
Q4 GDP fell 0.2% to 8.9%, at the same time the January HSBC China
manufacturing survey showed little improvement. Both numbers could
encourage the Chinese government to provide additional monetary easing.
Earnings were dominated by the banking and technology sectors. Bank of
America, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs all provided encouraging numbers,
while Citigroup and Bank of NY Mellon missed targets. On the tech
side, IBM, Microsoft and Intel exceeded expectations while Google missed
analysts’ estimates by a wide margin. General Electric also
disappointed, reporting an 18% drop in fourth quarter earnings,
reflecting muted profit growth.
In recent weeks, European bank shares have stabilized, distressed
government debt markets are rallying and credit default swaps for
European banks have declined by more than 150 basis points since the
European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operation was announced
last month.
S&P 500: 1,315 (up 2.02% for the week and up 4.61% on the year)
NASDAQ: 2,786 (up 2.80% for the week and up 6.99% on the year)
Dow: 12,720 (up 2.40% for the week and up 4.11% on the year)
US Treasury 10 yr: 2.03% (from 1.86% last week)
Crude Oil (March): $98.39 (from $99.03 last week)
Gold (February): $1,667 (from $1,640 last week)
USD/Euro: $1.2924 (from $1.2677 last week)
THIS WEEK
Earnings season is in full bloom, again this week, with hundreds of
companies reporting. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke holds his
first press conference of the year on Wednesday, following the Federal
Open Market Committee’s announcement regarding interest rates. New
members, who bring with them a dovish outlook, are rotating onto the
Committee.
Durable goods orders are seen increasing, but not by as much as last
month’s figures. Housing data (prices, pending and new home sales)
should improve along with leading economic indicators. Analysts are
looking for the first estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product to clock in
at 3%, following third quarter growth of 1.8%.
COMMENTARY
January’s Bull Market
As investors entered 2012, they cast off their ‘doom and gloom’ fears
and forged an optimistic outlook. The S&P has risen 4.6% since the
start or the year, with never a day when the benchmark has dipped into
sub-zero territory. The markets have felt calm, almost reassured, as
investors have adopted an air of complacency.
We like the sentiment but are hard pressed to find a compelling reason
for the markets to race higher as yet. Yes, the US economy has turned a
corner. News out of both the housing and job markets continues to be
positive; industrial production is improving; and there is little threat
of inflation of rising interest rates on the horizon. In addition,
systemic risk in the euro zone has been measurably reduced by the
European Central Bank’s unlimited long term refinancing operation
(LTRO). What is not to like?
Deleveraging - the reduction of debt balances. Households need to pay
off credit cards and reduce mortgage balances to comfortably cover the
equity in their homes. Businesses should retire more loans and reduce
their liabilities. And global governments (perhaps more than anyone) in
the long run must control their deficit spending.
When deleveraging takes place, growth is hampered. If you borrow money
and put it to work buying a product or service, your loan ends up in
someone else’s pocket. That person, in turn, spends your money, passing
it on to someone else, and so on, enabling the economy to expand.
Conversely, if you pay off your loan, that money no longer is exchanging
hands and the economy contracts. This is what happens in the
deleveraging process but on a much, much larger scale.
While consumers and businesses seem to be effectively paying down debt
(lots of cash on company balance sheets and a household debt service
ratio hovering at 1994 lows); governments are not. When governments
retire loans it is often because they have cut back on programs,
angering voters. It is hard for voters to see the connection between
their own balance sheets (where the bills arrive monthly) and a
government’s balance sheet. Failure to view the collective problem as
the summation of individual responsibility is one challenge that the
European Union faces in its stalled progress towards austerity. We could
face this same test as well in a few short years.
Deleveraging is extremely important for the ultimate health of the
global economy. It is also a very painful process. Because deleveraging
means less for many people, the natural inclination is to postpone it as
long as possible. Delay, however, can make the problem worse. In the
end we pay more and our investments earn less.
Many equity strategists are offering modest estimates for this year’s
stock market growth – upper single digits is a typical goal. At +4.6%
year-to-date, the S&P could have two more good weeks and be done for
the year. This is unlikely. With deleveraging providing headwinds for
years to come, breakout market growth could happen periodically, but may
not be sustainable.
We are looking for this year’s trading range to gradually move higher,
which means higher highs and higher lows. Although we expect continued
volatility, we hope markets can reflect an improving economy as the year
unfolds. In the interim, sudden, rapid moves higher, as we are seeing
this month, are likely to be followed by pullbacks in the near term.
Last year the S&P started and finished in the same place,
entertaining an extremely wild ride in between. If we are to keep away
from a similar fate this year, investors could benefit from two things:
avoiding headline panic and protecting themselves against complacency.
It was encouraging to see us bound out of the New Year’s gate with
confidence and zeal. But we need more than enthusiasm to sustain bull
rallies. The cumulative, collective action of individual consumers and
businesses - hiring, building and spending - ultimately drive market
returns. Until we see more steady progress, the markets are likely to
dance around the numbers – first higher, then lower, then higher again.
*Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indices are unmanaged and you cannot directly invest in them. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures all NASDAQ U.S. and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The S&P 500 index is based on the average performance of 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard and Poor’s. The data referred to above was taken from sources believed to be reliable. StrategicPoint Investment Advisors has not verified such data and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by StrategicPoint Investment Advisors.
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